Author: Dr Ngangom Dhruba Tara Singh, Associate Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies
Keywords: TAPI, Energy, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India
Three recent developments in India’s neighbourhood at the start of the new year have again brought the spotlight on the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India pipeline (TAPI). First, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy has confirmed that Astana is exploring the possibility of joining the TAPI project. The ministry cited the ongoing negotiations between the national gas company, QazaqGaz, and Turkmengaz.[1] Second, on January 04, 2025, a meeting was held between Hidayatullah Badri (Acting Minister of Mining and Oil of Afghanistan) and Muhammad Amanov (Director General of TAPI Pipeline Company Limited) in Kabul. One of the key areas of negotiations was the construction of the TAPI gas pipeline. The construction of the Serhetabat-Herat section of the project in Afghanistan, which started in September 2024, was an important milestone in TAPI’s implementation.[2] Third, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai on January 08, 2025. Their discussions encompassed a variety of subjects, such as security concerns in Afghanistan, the need for India to engage in developmental projects, providing humanitarian assistance, and Afghanistan’s use of Chabahar port in Iran to facilitate commerce.[3] In all three instances, the progress on the TAPI gas pipeline signifies a potential shift in Afghanistan’s role as a transit hub for regional energy trade. India’s engagement with Afghanistan indicates the former’s strategic interest in maintaining regional stability and connectivity.
TAPI: Impediments in its Realisation
The TAPI is a gas pipeline project extending 1,814 km and, is designed to transport 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from the Galkynysh field (Turkmenistan). The pipeline route includes 214 km in Turkmenistan, 774 km in Afghanistan, crossing Herat and Kandahar, 826 in Pakistan, crossing Quetta and Multan, and concluding in Fazilka, India. Many experts have advocated the pipeline project by highlighting its environmental advantages and economic benefits derived from energy commerce and fees. For India, TAPI’s importance can be observed through the following reasons: First, as India’s economy needs all forms of energy, the international partnership is necessary for India’s needs. Second, given natural gas’s lesser carbon footprint, the gas supply from the TAPI project will assist the Indian economy in growing in a lower carbon-intensive manner. Third, it will help in regional integration and have a multiplier effect.[4]
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Souring Afghanistan and Pakistan relations: In light of the deteriorating bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan since 2021, there has been a shadow over the feasibility and security of the TAPI project. Pakistan expresses concerns over potential Taliban dominance over energy resources, which could be leveraged for political advantage. Additionally, the activities of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have exacerbated Pakistan’s worries. Pakistan’s airstrikes inside Afghanistan targeting TTP hideouts and firing exchanges between the Taliban and Pakistani military posts along the Afghan border have created tension between both countries.[5]
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India-Pakistan Ties: Given the historical tensions between India and Pakistan, the former has geopolitical, security and political concerns concerning the TAPI project. The Pakistan factor in the project remains a concern for India due to the former’s ability to disrupt gas supplies in the event of disagreement. This uncertainty continues to prevent India from active participation. The security of midstream infrastructure in Afghanistan and Pakistan also remains a concerning issue for India. For instance, in Pakistan, the pipeline route passes through Balochistan, a region known for its terrorist activities.[6]
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Security concerns in Afghanistan: Post-2021, the Taliban ensured the safety of the project by purchasing land along the pipeline’s route[7] and reassured Turkmenistan of their commitment to protect the pipeline.[8] However, despite these assurances, security concerns remain. Ongoing threats from terrorist organisations, economic volatility, and political instability persistently undermine the project’s prospects.
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Problem with Taliban’s International Recognition: Several countries have linked their recognition of the Taliban to the establishment of an inclusive government, the safeguarding of women’s rights, and the cutting-off of connections with extremist organisations. The non-recognition of the Taliban will create hurdles in various fields of engagement, such as trade and investments, and exclusion from international organisations. In the context of trade and commerce, it will lead to significant challenges in obtaining trade agreements and gaining access to international financial institutions. On similar lines, exclusion from international organisations will prevent them from engaging in cooperation and negotiation platforms.
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India’s Sophie’s Choice
India has shown moderate interest in the gas pipeline project primarily due to ongoing security challenges in Afghanistan and its unfriendly relations with Pakistan. These issues have remained unresolved since the project’s beginning. In this regard, India has two potential courses of action regarding the TAPI project and should maintain flexibility concerning both.
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Adopting a Multi-Stakeholder Approach towards TAPI: As India’s worries concerning TAPI primarily emerge from security issues and political instability in the Af-Pak region, bringing more stakeholders like new member countries, energy firms, or international organisations into the project could help mitigate these concerns. For example, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) pipeline, supported by the European Union (EU), has involved many countries and organisations.
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Leveraging the INSTC’s Energy Potential: If the TAPI project encounters significant obstacles, India needs to seriously consider leveraging the energy potential of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Because the corridor uses a combination of seaports, railways, and roadways, its potential for oil and gas transportation must be explored amidst continuing ambiguity on TAPI. The membership of INSTC might be helpful for mobilising financial and technical resources required for expansion and mitigating any security threats emanating from regions along the INSTC, unlike TAPI’s.
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In conclusion, despite considerable scholarly and popular discussion over the TAPI pipeline in recent years, a sense of fatigue and scepticism about TAPI’s realisation is evident. However, as long as India is a party to the TAPI project, assessments and discussions over the project should continue to find the best option for the country’s energy security.
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Notes
*An extremely difficult choice between two or more things one considers to be equally valuable, important, or essential.
[1] “Afghanistan Advances TAPI Gas Pipeline Construction as Kazakhstan Explores Participation,” The Times of Central Asia, January 30, 2025, https://timesca.com/afghanistan-advances-tapi-gas-pipeline-construction-as-kazakhstan-explores-participation/. Accessed on February 05, 2025.
[2] Arman Young, “Kabul and Ashgabat accelerate the implementation of strategic projects,” Caspian Herald, January 09, 2025, https://casp-geo.ru/afganistan-i-turkmenistan-uskoryayut-realizatsiyu-strategicheskih-proektov/. Accessed on January 12, 2025.
[3] Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “Foreign Secretary’s meeting with the Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan,” January 08, 2025, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/38898/Foreign+Secretarys+meeting+with+the+Acting+Foreign+Minister+of+Afghanistan. Accessed on January 12, 2025.
[4] “Statement by Ambassador Syed Akbaruddin, Permanent Representative at the side-event on Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – India (TAPI) gas pipeline: a new energy great Silk Road to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all on July 18, 2018,” Permanent Mission of India to the UN, July 18, 2018, https://www.pminewyork.gov.in/others?id=MzY4MQ. Accessed on Accessed on February 05, 2025.
[5] Syed Fazl-e-Haider, “Turkmenistan Resumes Work on TAPI Pipeline Despite Geopolitical Hurdles,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, September 19, 2024, https://jamestown.org/program/turkmenistan-resumes-work-on-tapi-pipeline-despite-geopolitical-hurdles/ Accessed on January 12, 2025.
[6] “India’s doubts over TAPI Pipeline persist amid security and geopolitical concerns,” bne IntelliNews, January 24, 2025, https://www.intellinews.com/india-s-doubts-over-tapi-pipeline-persist-amid-security-and-geopolitical-concerns-363252/?source=afghanistan. Accessed on January 25, 2025.
[7] Samir Muradov, “Afghanistan admitted to the implementation of the TAPI project,” News.Az, September 12, 2024, https://news.az/news/-afghanistan-admitted-to-the-implementation-of-the-tapi-project. Accessed on January 12, 2025.
[8] “Taliban vows to guarantee safety of trans-Afghanistan gas pipeline,” Eurasianet, February 06, 2021, https://eurasianet.org/taliban-vows-to-guarantee-safety-of-trans-afghanistan-gas-pipeline. Accessed on January 12, 2025.
